The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially starts on June 1st. From early indications it is predicted to be an extra active and intense one. Ocean water temperatures in February and March are already at high levels typically expected during the summer months. And while it is not reason to panic, especially so early, it is reason to be prepared and informed. Below we cover some predictions and information from the news authorities on the upcoming hurricane season as well as explanations of why this season could be an exceptionally intense one.
A Perfect Storm of Conditions Needed for Major Hurricanes
Water temperatures in the main development region (MDR) are much higher than expected. In addition, the likelihood of a La Niña happening are high. Both of these factors are creating a recipe for potentially intense hurricane activity in 2024.
A recent news article by National Geographic details that “record warm ocean temperatures and a potential La Niña may create a perfect storm of conditions needed for major hurricanes.” This feeling is being shared by many experts who believe that La Niña and high sea temperatures across the Main Development Region (MDR) will lead to higher than normal activity in the Atlantic.
Another recent USA Today article quoted Florida State Climatologist David Zierden saying “we’ve got possibly extremely warm sea surface temperatures, especially in the main (hurricane) development region and the prospect of La Niña being in place. Zierden concluded that “that’s not good news for hurricane season.”
Similarly, AccuWeather is reporting the same. Their recent article entitled “AccuWeather sounding alarm bells: Super-Charged hurricane season possible in 2024” also cited the same reasons.
La Niña Will Have an Effect on Storms in the Gulf of Mexico
For us here in Southwest Florida, La Niña is something we should definitely pay attention to. In recent seasons El Niño has helped to push storms out to the Mid-Atlantic. The high shear also helped to disrupt them.
But the high likelihood of La Niña will change that recent trend. According to ReduceFlooding.com La Niña allows more storms to form and enter the Gulf vs pushing them away or “tearing them apart.”
Focus turns to Preparation
There seems to be agreement that 2024 will be an active hurricane season. And knowing this it becomes ever more important to prepare before it starts. We consistently update our Hurricane Preparedness Guide in order to help the community. But you can also find preparation guides from your local city and county. Being prepared in advance are critical to protecting your loved ones as well as your home.
Read our Hurricane Preparation Guide.
Predictions for 2024 Hurricane Season
Forecast from ECMWF calls for a very busy Atlantic #hurricane season through September, with ensemble average of ~17 named storms, ~9 hurricanes and ACE of 170% of normal. Warm Atlantic and cool neutral/#LaNina likely primary contributors. ECMWF forecast only extends thru Sept. pic.twitter.com/ir5iFXQx7v
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) March 5, 2024
As we mentioned many experts are predicting that the 2024 hurricane season could be above average in terms of activity and intensity. This belief is based on two main reasons, including:
- Warmer Ocean Surface Temperatures: Atlantic Ocean temperatures, especially in areas where hurricanes form, are currently much warmer than usual. Warm water temperatures help to form and fuel stronger storms.
- Shift from El Niño to El Niña: El Niño, which suppresses hurricane activity, is expected to weaken and transition to La Niña, which allows the development of hurricanes. It is expected that this will happen around peak hurricane season. This will have a great effect on the Gulf of Mexico especially.
