The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season is fast approaching, and will start on June 1, 2025. What will the 2025 Season bring? Will it be mild, or will it be as severe or worse than recent seasons? In this article we aim to give a summary of 2025 Hurricane Season Predictions from well-known, expert organizations and institutes. This article has become an annual tradition, as we start to get ready for another hurricane season in Florida. However, since we are early in the year, many experts have yet to make their predictions. In turn, we will continually add to this article as more experts release their initial predictions.
It should be noted that the data and predictions are still early, and the data and predictions will fluctuate over time as more data is gathered.
National Hurricane Center (NOAA) 2025 Hurricane Season Predictions
The National Hurricane Center (NOAA) will issue its first 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast in late May.
Colorado State University (CSU) 2025 Predictions
The Tropical Climate and Weather Team from Colorado State University (CSU) is one of the foremost authorities in this area. Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a Senior Research Scientist at CSU is one notable expert that works on their team. Before every season they predict the number of total named storms, number of hurricanes, and number of major hurricanes, among other things.
In early April 2025 CSU released their Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2025 report. In this initial report, their team predicts “above-normal activity” for the 2025 season. Although these predictions may change, they project the following:
| Parameter | Historical Average (1991-2020) | CSU Forecast (4/3/25) |
|---|---|---|
| Named Storms | 14.4 | 17 |
| Number of Hurricanes | 7.2 | 9 |
| Major Hurricanes | 3.2 | 4 |
There are two reasons why they are predicting an above-normal season. First, the CSU team cites warmer sea surface temperatures (warmer than normal). Second, they mention the uncertainty around the which phase of ENSO it will be in the summer and fall.
Colorado State University is set to release their next forecast in June.
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 2025 Predictions
Seasonal forecast Tropical Storm Frequency data from the month of March 2025 is provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Although it is still early, this data would indicate an “average or near-average season“. ECMWF’s early predictions are below:
| Parameter | Historical Average (1991-2020) | ECMWF Forecast (through September 2024) |
|---|---|---|
| Named Storms | 14.4 | 12 |
| Number of Hurricanes | 7.2 | 5 |
| Major Hurricanes | Not provided | Not provided |
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) 2025 Hurricane Season Predictions
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) is an organization that predicts and maps storm activities throughout the world. They released their Seasonal Forecast for Atlantic Hurricanes 2025 report on April 7th. Below are their latest predictions (shown vs average of 1991-2020). Unlike CSU, TSR is predicting a near-average season, similar to the ECMWF.
| Parameter | Historical Average (1991-2020) | TSR Forecast (4/7/25) |
|---|---|---|
| Named Storms | 14.4 | 14 |
| Number of Hurricanes | 7.2 | 7 |
| Major Hurricanes | 3.2 | 3 |
UK Met Office 2025 Predictions
The UK Met office has not yet released its projections for the 2025 hurricane season. Estimated release is in June.
North Carolina State University (NCSU)
Lian Xie is a Professor of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences at North Carolina State University (NCSU). The schools released Xie’s 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season projections on April 15th, 2025. In it, he estimates an “active” and above-average season for 2025.
Xie’s projections are shown in the table below.
| Parameter | Historical Average (1991-2020) | NCSU Forecast (4/15/25) |
|---|---|---|
| Named Storms | 14.4 | 15-20 |
| Number of Hurricanes | 7.2 | 10-12 |
| Major Hurricanes | 3.2 | 3-4 |
A worthwhile note in their projections is the activity for the Gulf of Mexico, where 5-7 named storms, 2-4 hurricanes, and 1-2 major are predicted to happen. This compares to a historical average of three named storms and two hurricanes.
Summarized Projections for 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| DATA | Named Storms | Hurricanes | Major Hurricanes |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOAA | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| CSU Forecast (4/3/25) | 17 | 9 | 4 |
| ECMWF Forecast (through September 2024) | 12 | 5 | Not provided |
| TSR Forecast (4/7/25) | 14 | 7 | 3 |
| UK Met Office | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| NCSU Forecast (4/16/25) | 15-20 | 10-12 | 3-4 |
| Historical Average (1991-2020) | 14.4 | 7.2 | 3.2 |
